Gold Price Outlook 2026–2027: Will Gold Keep Rising?
Gold set an all-time high of $5,589/oz in late January 2026 and is up 18% year-to-date in USD. JP Morgan now targets $6,300/oz, while other major banks range from $5,400 to $6,300. But can the rally continue into 2027 — or are the bears right to warn of a sharp correction? This analysis breaks down the forecasts, the drivers, and what UK investors need to know.
Important: Not Financial Advice
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Gold investments can fall as well as rise in value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Analyst forecasts are speculative and have a poor historical track record of accuracy. Consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
At a Glance (25 February 2026)
Spot gold (USD/oz)
Spot gold (GBP/oz)
Year-to-date gain in USD
All-time high (28 Jan 2026)
Prices at time of writing. Check live gold prices for current data. GBP/USD rate approximately 1.3500.
How Gold Got Here: Key Price Milestones
Gold's ascent to current levels has been one of the most dramatic multi-year rallies in the metal's history. Roughly one new all-time high was set per week throughout 2025. The 2025 full-year average price was $3,431.54 — itself a record — before the surge continued in early 2026. Here is how we got to $5,200+:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Mid-2025 | Gold broke $4,000/oz for the first time |
| Late 2025 | Gold surged through $4,500/oz |
| 25 January 2026 | Gold broke $5,000/oz for the first time |
| 28 January 2026 | All-time high set at $5,589.38/oz |
| Late Jan / Feb 2026 | Pullback and consolidation around $5,000–$5,200/oz |
| 25 February 2026 | Spot price ~$5,212/oz; GBP price ~£3,830–3,840/oz (at time of writing) |
The 18% gain year-to-date in USD follows a gain of approximately 30% throughout 2025. For UK investors, the GBP price has risen less dramatically — sterling has strengthened approximately 6.59% against the dollar over the past 12 months, which partially offsets gold's USD gains. For context on the current GBP gold price, our live gold prices page updates daily.
Gold Price Chart: 5-Year View (GBP)
The chart below, powered by BullionVault, shows the gold price in GBP over the past five years. You can switch between timeframes to see shorter or longer windows.
Interactive chart provided by BullionVault
Chart data provided by BullionVault. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
2026 Gold Price Forecasts: What the Major Banks Say
The table below summarises the latest published targets from major investment banks and analyst surveys. Notably, forecasts have been revised sharply upward in early 2026 — the same pattern seen in 2025, when the LBMA consensus undershot the actual outturn by roughly 25%. All figures are in USD per troy ounce.
| Institution | 2026 Target (USD/oz) | Key Driver / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | $6,300 | Raised Feb 2026 from $5,055. Upside scenario: $8,000–$8,500 |
| UBS | $6,200 (mid-year) / $5,900 (year-end) | ETF buying, 900t central bank purchases projected |
| Wells Fargo | $6,100–$6,300 | Raised 35–40% in February 2026; advises 'buy the dip' |
| Bank of America | $6,000 (Spring 2026) | Geopolitics, US fiscal deficits, reserve diversification |
| Goldman Sachs | $5,400 (year-end) | 60t/month central bank buying pace; gold under-owned in portfolios |
| RBC Capital Markets | $4,600 avg / $4,800 year-end | 2027 forecast: $5,100/oz average |
| LBMA Survey (28 analysts) | $4,742 avg | Range: $4,000–$6,050 across respondents |
| Citi | $3,600–$3,800 | Most conservative outlook; stronger dollar scenario |
“We continue to see gold as the commodity of choice in 2026, with the structural demand from central banks and ETF buyers providing a durable floor under prices. Our $6,300 target reflects the conviction that de-dollarisation and geopolitical risk remain firmly in play.”
— JP Morgan Global Commodities Research, February 2026
A Note on Forecast Accuracy
The LBMA survey average for 2025 was around $2,750/oz — the actual outturn was approximately $3,431/oz, a miss of roughly 25%. Analyst forecasts are useful for understanding the range of plausible outcomes, not as precise predictions. Even the most bullish banks have historically underestimated gold in strong bull markets. Treat all targets with appropriate scepticism.
The Five Drivers Behind the Gold Price Outlook
For a detailed examination of one of the biggest structural forces, see our article on why central banks are buying record gold in 2026. Below we cover all five major drivers shaping the outlook.
Central Bank Buying: The Structural Anchor
Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 — the third consecutive year above 800 tonnes. The World Gold Council projects 755–900 tonnes for 2026. China's People's Bank has added to its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months. Poland has announced plans to purchase 150 tonnes to bring its gold share of reserves to 20%. India, Turkey, and several central and eastern European nations are also active buyers.
Unlike retail investors, central banks do not sell on price spikes. Their buying is driven by reserve policy, not return expectations, making it one of the most durable demand forces the gold market has ever seen.
Geopolitics, Tariffs, and De-dollarisation
US-Iran tensions, ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, and escalating trade tensions have all stoked demand for gold as a geopolitical hedge. President Trump's 15% global flat tariff — upheld after a Supreme Court ruling — has accelerated fears of a global trade war, reducing confidence in dollar-denominated assets among foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
The longer-term de-dollarisation trend — nations seeking to reduce dependence on the US dollar as a reserve currency — continues to redirect capital into gold. This is not a short-term trade; it is a multi-decade structural realignment.
Interest Rates and Real Yields
Gold has an inverse relationship with real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates. When real yields are low or negative, the opportunity cost of holding gold — which pays no interest — falls, and gold becomes more attractive relative to bonds. Markets expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which should support gold prices.
Goldman Sachs' $5,400 year-end target is partly based on this rate-cut thesis. If the Fed cuts more aggressively than expected, real yields could fall further and provide additional upside.
Record ETF Inflows: Retail Meets Institutional
Gold ETFs attracted $89 billion in net inflows during 2025, doubling total assets under management to $559 billion. This represents a marked shift from 2022–2023, when ETF outflows were a drag on the gold price. Both retail and institutional investors have been buying, with North American funds leading inflows.
UBS' 2026 forecast explicitly factors in sustained ETF buying, estimating that 900 tonnes of net purchases (central banks plus ETFs combined) could support prices at $6,200/oz mid-year. Continued strong ETF demand is arguably the key swing factor for 2026.
GBP/USD and the UK Investor Perspective
For UK investors, the GBP gold price matters more than the USD price. Sterling has strengthened approximately 6.59% against the dollar over the past 12 months, which has meaningfully offset gold's USD gains. At the time of writing, with GBP/USD at approximately 1.35, gold trades at around £3,830–£3,840 per troy ounce, or £123–124 per gram.
If analyst forecasts of $5,400–$6,300/oz prove correct but GBP/USD holds at 1.35, UK investors would see GBP gold at approximately £4,000–£4,670/oz. If sterling weakens — which would happen if the UK economy underperforms — the GBP gains would be amplified further. UK investors should also remember the important tax advantages: investment gold is VAT-exempt, and Sovereigns and Britannias are free of Capital Gains Tax.
Bull Case vs Bear Case for Gold
The range of analyst views on gold is unusually wide — from Citi's conservative $3,600–$3,800 to JP Morgan's upside of $8,000–$8,500. Here is how the two camps make their case.
JP Morgan upside: $8,000–$8,500/oz
- →Central bank structural buying: 755–900 tonnes/year projected for 2026
- →Record ETF inflows: $89bn in 2025, AUM doubled to $559bn
- →Fed rate cuts push real yields lower, reducing gold's opportunity cost
- →Geopolitical risk (tariffs, Iran, trade fragmentation) keeps safe-haven demand elevated
- →US debt “debasement trade” broadens into retail portfolios
- →De-dollarisation accelerates: sovereign wealth funds diversify into gold
WGC correction scenario: $3,360–$3,990/oz; Citi base: $3,600–$3,800
- →WGC “Reflation Return” scenario: pro-growth policies reduce safe-haven demand
- →Stronger US dollar + higher real yields historically press gold lower
- →Record prices already hindering physical demand in India and the Middle East
- →AI productivity boom reduces long-term inflation fears
- →LBMA consensus at $4,742 avg — already below current spot price
- →Sentiment-driven ETF outflows could reverse quickly if macro outlook improves
Continued structural support, moderate ETF buying, no major macro shock
The base case assumes central bank buying remains above 755 tonnes, ETF inflows continue at a moderate pace, and the Federal Reserve delivers one to two rate cuts. Under these conditions, Goldman Sachs' $5,400 year-end target serves as a reasonable anchor, with the possibility of testing $5,800 if geopolitical risk escalates further.
In GBP terms — assuming GBP/USD holds near 1.35 — this implies a range of roughly £3,850–£4,300/oz. UK investors in Sovereigns or Britannias would see these gains entirely CGT-free.
The Bull Case in Detail
▲Structural Central Bank Buying
Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, continuing a multi-year trend. China has added to reserves for 15 consecutive months. Poland has set out plans to buy 150 tonnes. The World Gold Council projects 755–900 tonnes of central bank purchases in 2026. This institutionalised, price-insensitive buying provides a structural floor under the market.
▲Geopolitical Risk and the De-dollarisation Trade
US-Iran tensions, ongoing conflicts, and trade fragmentation all support gold as a safe-haven asset. Trump's imposition of a 15% global flat tariff (upheld after a Supreme Court ruling) has accelerated fears of a trade war. Simultaneously, nations seeking to reduce dollar dependency are accumulating gold as an alternative reserve asset — a multi-decade structural shift that shows no sign of reversing.
▲Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Lower Real Yields
Gold thrives when real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates are low or negative, because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls. Further Federal Reserve rate cuts — widely anticipated by markets in 2026 — would push real yields lower and make gold more attractive relative to bonds and cash deposits.
▲Record ETF Inflows
Gold ETFs attracted $89 billion in net inflows during 2025, doubling total AUM to $559 billion. In early 2026, inflows have remained strong. When retail and institutional investors pile into gold ETFs, they create sustained buying pressure in the paper and physical markets alike.
▲US Debt and the 'Debasement Trade'
US federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion. Investors worried about the long-term purchasing power of the dollar — and the risk of debt monetisation — are allocating more to hard assets. JP Morgan's upside scenario of $8,000–$8,500/oz assumes this 'debasement trade' broadens meaningfully into household portfolios.
The Bear Case in Detail
▼WGC 'Reflation Return' Scenario: 5–20% Correction
The World Gold Council's bear scenario — dubbed 'Reflation Return' — imagines a world where pro-growth fiscal policies succeed, inflation normalises, and safe-haven demand evaporates. Under this scenario, gold could correct 5–20% from current levels, implying prices of roughly $3,360–$3,990/oz. Citi's base case of $3,600–$3,800 is similarly conservative.
▼Stronger Dollar and Higher Real Yields
If US growth surprises to the upside and the Federal Reserve delays or reverses rate cuts, real yields could rise and the dollar could strengthen. Both are historically negative for gold. A 10% dollar rally alone could compress gold prices by several hundred dollars per ounce.
▼Record Prices Suppressing Physical Demand
At $5,000+/oz, jewellery demand in price-sensitive markets like India and the Middle East has already begun to fall. If physical buying dries up, the market becomes more dependent on investment flows — which are inherently more volatile. A change in sentiment could trigger sharp selling.
▼AI Productivity Boom Reducing Inflation Fears
Some economists argue that artificial intelligence-driven productivity gains could structurally suppress inflation over the next decade. If markets price in a low-inflation future, the inflation-hedge case for gold weakens, and real yields could remain higher for longer.
▼LBMA Consensus Already Below Spot
The LBMA's annual survey of 28 analysts produced a 2026 average forecast of $4,742/oz — well below the current spot price of around $5,212/oz. This mirrors the pattern from 2025, when analyst consensus undershot actual prices by around 25%. But it also highlights genuine uncertainty: not everyone is bullish.
Historical Pattern: When Forecasts Undershoot Reality
One of the most striking features of the current gold bull market is how consistently professional forecasters have underestimated the price. In 2025, the LBMA consensus at the start of the year implied an average of around $2,750/oz. The actual full-year average came in at $3,431.54 — a miss of over 25%.
| Year | LBMA Consensus Forecast | Actual Average | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ~$2,750 | $3,431.54 | +25% |
| 2026 (LBMA forecast) | $4,742 avg | Year in progress | — |
What This Means in Practice
The LBMA's 2026 average forecast of $4,742 is already below the current spot price of around $5,212 at the time of writing. This means analysts surveyed at the start of the year were, in aggregate, more cautious than the market has turned out to be. If the pattern from 2025 repeats — consensus undershooting by 20–25% — the implied actual average could be $5,700–$5,900/oz. This is not a prediction, but it illustrates why top-down bank targets and bottom-up survey averages can diverge so dramatically.
What Should UK Investors Do? A Practical Guide
Whether you are new to gold or already hold some, the question of whether to buy, hold, or sell is rarely straightforward. Here is a practical framework based on current conditions. For a full analysis of investment options and tax treatment, see our guide to investing in gold in the UK.
Strategy 1: Pound-Cost Averaging (DCA)
Rather than investing a lump sum at today's price, pound-cost averaging involves making regular purchases — monthly, for example — regardless of the current price. This approach removes the emotional pressure of “timing the market” and means you automatically buy more when prices dip and less when they are high.
- →Practical starting point: £100–500/month into a gold ETF (e.g. iShares Physical Gold via an ISA) or monthly coin purchases from a reputable dealer
- →ISA advantage: Gold ETFs held inside a Stocks and Shares ISA generate gains entirely free of Capital Gains Tax
- →Physical alternative: Buying one Gold Sovereign per month (~£900) provides CGT-free accumulation of physical gold
Strategy 2: Buy the Dip
Wells Fargo explicitly recommends “buying the dip” when gold pulls back from peaks. Gold has consistently recovered from short-term corrections during this bull market — most recently in late January 2026, when spot fell to around $5,000 from the $5,589 all-time high before recovering. Pullbacks of 5–10% from recent highs have historically offered good medium-term entry points.
The key question is whether any given dip is a temporary correction or the start of a trend reversal. The structural drivers — central bank buying, ETF inflows, geopolitics — suggest the former is more likely in the near term, but this cannot be known with certainty.
Strategy 3: Review Your Portfolio Allocation
Most financial advisors suggest 5–10% of a diversified portfolio in gold or precious metals. If gold has risen significantly and now represents 15–20%+ of your portfolio, a rebalance may be prudent — not because gold will necessarily fall, but to maintain your intended risk profile.
Conservative — basic inflation hedge
Moderate — standard advisor recommendation
Aggressive — high conviction on macro risks
UK Tax Considerations: Maximising Your After-Tax Returns
Key UK Tax Facts for Gold Investors
VAT
Investment gold — including gold bars of 995 fineness or higher, and gold coins issued after 1800 — is exempt from VAT in the UK. Silver bullion is subject to 20% VAT, which is a significant disadvantage vs gold.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT)
Gains on gold bars and foreign coins are subject to CGT above the annual allowance (£3,000 for 2025/26). Gold Sovereigns and Gold Britannias are CGT-free as UK legal tender, regardless of the size of your gain. Gold ETFs are also subject to CGT unless held inside an ISA or SIPP.
ISA and SIPP
Gold ETFs can be held inside a Stocks and Shares ISA (£20,000 annual allowance) or a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP). Both shelter gains from CGT. SIPPs also provide income tax relief on contributions.
The Sovereign / Britannia Advantage
If you hold gold outside a tax wrapper and your gains exceed the £3,000 CGT allowance, buying Sovereigns or Britannias instead of bars or ETFs can be a significant long-term tax saving — especially relevant given gold's strong performance in recent years.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the gold price forecast for 2026?
Major banks have set ambitious targets: JP Morgan forecasts $6,300/oz (raised February 2026 from $5,055, with an upside scenario of $8,000–$8,500), Goldman Sachs targets $5,400/oz by year-end, UBS sees $6,200/oz mid-year, and Wells Fargo raised its target to $6,100–$6,300 in February 2026. The LBMA survey of 28 analysts produced a more cautious average of $4,742/oz. At time of writing, spot gold is around $5,212/oz, already above the LBMA consensus. Forecasts are not guarantees.
Will gold prices go up in 2027?
RBC Capital Markets forecasts a gold average of $5,100/oz for 2027, up from their 2026 average forecast of $4,600. JP Morgan projects a 2027 average of around $5,400/oz. The bull case for continued gains into 2027 depends primarily on central bank buying remaining structural (755–900 tonnes per year), persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and the de-dollarisation trend continuing. If these drivers remain in place, a gold price above $5,000/oz in 2027 looks plausible, though the further out the forecast, the greater the uncertainty.
What is the gold price prediction for the UK?
In GBP terms, gold trades at approximately £3,830–3,840/oz at the time of writing (February 2026), with GBP/USD at approximately 1.35. If bank forecasts of $5,400–$6,300/oz prove correct and GBP/USD stays near 1.35, UK investors could see gold at roughly £4,000–£4,670/oz. A stronger pound would reduce these returns; a weaker pound would amplify them. Sterling has strengthened around 6.6% vs the dollar over the past 12 months, which has already partially offset gold's USD gains. Track the latest UK gold price on our live prices page.
Should I buy gold now or wait for a dip?
Most analysts — including Wells Fargo, who explicitly recommend “buying the dip” — advise against trying to time the market. Pound-cost averaging (making regular monthly purchases regardless of price) smooths your entry point and removes the emotional element from the decision. The structural drivers of central bank buying (755–900 tonnes per year), record ETF inflows, and de-dollarisation suggest meaningful price support at current levels. Starting with £100–500/month into a gold ETF or monthly coin purchase is a practical approach for most UK investors.
What could cause gold prices to fall?
The World Gold Council's “Reflation Return” bear scenario warns of a 5–20% correction to roughly $3,360–$3,990/oz if pro-growth policies reduce safe-haven demand. Citi's base case is $3,600–$3,800/oz. Other meaningful downside risks include a stronger US dollar, sharply rising real yields (if the Fed delays rate cuts or reverses them), easing geopolitical tensions, or record prices permanently suppressing physical demand in India and other price-sensitive markets. Gold has already seen one sharp correction in this cycle — from $5,589 to around $5,000 in late January 2026 — demonstrating that volatility remains significant even in bull markets.
Related Analysis
Full investment case analysis: bull and bear factors, portfolio allocation, and how UK investors can gain exposure.
Read Analysis →Deep dive into the biggest structural driver of the gold price: 863 tonnes bought in 2025 and counting.
Read Analysis →Latest gold market news, price movements, and analysis updated regularly for UK gold investors.
View Updates →Track the Gold Price in Real Time
See today's gold price per gram and per ounce in GBP, with historical charts and purity breakdowns for UK investors.
Sources and References
Gold spot price data: GoldPrice.org, BullionVault, LBMA fixing data. Prices cited are indicative at time of writing (25 February 2026) and are subject to change.
Analyst forecasts: JP Morgan Global Commodities Research (February 2026, $6,300/oz target, raised from $5,055); Goldman Sachs Commodities Research ($5,400/oz year-end); UBS Wealth Management ($6,200/oz mid-year, $5,900 year-end); Wells Fargo Investment Institute ($6,100–$6,300 range, raised February 2026); Bank of America Global Research ($6,000/oz Spring 2026); RBC Capital Markets ($4,600 avg / $4,800 year-end 2026, $5,100 2027); Citi Research ($3,600–$3,800 base case).
LBMA Forecast Survey 2026: 28 analysts, average $4,742/oz, range $4,000–$6,050.
Central bank gold purchases: World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends 2025 (863 tonnes purchased in 2025). WGC 2026 demand projections: 755–900 tonnes central bank buying.
ETF data: World Gold Council — $89bn inflows in 2025; total AUM doubled to $559bn.
Historical gold price 2025: LBMA annual statistics — full-year average $3,431.54/oz.
WGC scenario analysis: World Gold Council Gold Outlook 2026 (Reflation Return scenario: 5–20% correction risk).
UK tax treatment of gold: HMRC Notice 701/21A (Investment Gold); HMRC Capital Gains Tax guidance on chattels and foreign currency.
Last updated: 25 February 2026. This article will be reviewed regularly to reflect changing market conditions and updated analyst forecasts.
Founder & Market Researcher
Taro has been actively investing in precious metals and financial markets for over 15 years. Frustrated by the lack of transparent, accurate gold pricing information in the UK, he built London Gold Exchange as a data-driven resource for fellow investors. The site combines real-time market data, verified dealer information from 242+ UK businesses, and insights drawn from years of hands-on experience in the gold market.
- ✓15+ years investing in precious metals & equities
- ✓Built verified database of 242+ UK gold dealers
- ✓Daily market data analysis and price tracking
Important Information
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a personal recommendation, or an endorsement of any product or service. The value of gold and other investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
London Gold Exchange is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and does not provide regulated investment advice. Before making any investment decisions, consider seeking advice from an independent financial adviser who is authorised by the FCA.